Canberra 1% Annual Exceedance Probability Flood Risk Model

ACT Government data provides flood risk modeling for Canberra, focusing on the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) flood level used for urban planning since the 1970s. The dataset includes theoretical flood estimates derived from computer modeling, historic rainfall, and runoff records to assess flood probability and consequences.

Use Cases

• Model urban development suitability by comparing proposed site elevations against the 1% AEP flood level.
• Analyze changes in flood probability estimates over time as more historic rainfall and flooding information is gathered.
• Assess flood risk consequences by evaluating the number of people and properties exposed to modeled floodwater.
• Estimate flash flood vulnerability in localised areas using data on intense local rainfall, such as the 100mm in 1 hour recorded in Woden in 1971.

Strengths

• Based on computer modeling informed by historic rainfall and runoff records.
• Integrates long-term planning policy, referencing urban development guidelines established since the 1970s.
• Includes specific local case study data, such as the 100mm rainfall measurement from the 1971 Woden flash flood.

Limitations

• Theoretical flood estimates may change with climate change and new historical data, affecting model assumptions.
• Spatial coverage is limited to the Canberra region within the Australian Capital Territory.
• Dataset details like row count, column structure, and specific file formats are unknown.

Provenance

Source

ACT Government Open Data, authored by Greg Tankard.

Collection Method

Computer modeling using historic rainfall and runoff records and a range of other assumptions.

Time Range

References historic records dating back to at least 1971.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026.

Geography

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory (ACT).