Phenacoccus Solenopsis: Thermal Suitability and Climate Change Projections

A meta-analysis and ensemble species distribution model (Biomod2) quantifies the thermal suitability and potential future distribution of the invasive cotton mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis. The dataset combines temperature-dependent physiological trait data with bioclimatic variables to model current and future habitat suitability under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5). It identifies key predictive variables, including mean temperature of the wettest quarter (bio08), and projects northward expansion of moderate-suitability areas under climate warming.

Use Cases

• Projecting pest invasion risk under future climate scenarios based on ensemble species distribution modeling.
• Assessing the thermal ecology of an invasive insect based on meta-analyzed physiological trait data.
• Identifying key bioclimatic drivers (e.g., bio08, bio03) for pest distribution modeling.
• Supporting regional monitoring and early warning systems for agricultural pests.
• Comparing habitat suitability shifts between tropical/subtropical and temperate zones.

Strengths

• Integrates a global meta-analysis of physiological traits with an ensemble modeling approach (Biomod2).
• Provides specific quantitative results, including optimal development temperature (30–35°C) and variable importance percentages (e.g., bio08 at 24.42%).
• Models distribution across multiple future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5).
• Released under a permissive CC-BY-4.0 license.

Limitations

• Column names and exact row count are not provided, limiting understanding of the data structure.
• The dataset size (47111) is given, but its unit (e.g., bytes, records) and composition are unclear.
• Author and organizational provenance are listed as 'double-anonymized peer review' and 'unknown', reducing traceability.

Provenance

Source

double-anonymized peer review

Collection Method

Global meta-analysis of temperature-dependent physiological traits combined with ensemble species distribution modeling (Biomod2).

Time Range

Current and future climate scenarios.

Freshness

2026-03-22 09:27:36

Geography

Global, with focus on tropical/subtropical regions of Asia, Africa, and the Americas.