SPIES: Subjective Probability Interval Estimates from Three Judgment Bias Experiments

Uriel Haran from Carnegie Mellon University presents experimental data on a method to reduce overprecision in judgment. The dataset likely contains results from three experiments where participants estimated likelihoods for intervals of possible outcomes using the Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method. The description indicates the method's superiority is robust to range widths and interval grain sizes, and shows carryover effects on subsequent conventional confidence interval estimates.

Use Cases

• Analyzing the effectiveness of the SPIES method in reducing overprecision bias based on experimental results.
• Studying carryover effects of judgment interventions based on subsequent conventional interval estimates mentioned in the description.
• Modeling the relationship between considered outcome ranges and judgment accuracy based on the described experimental design.
• Comparing the robustness of different judgment elicitation methods to range widths and interval grain sizes as discussed.

Strengths

• Data originates from three controlled experiments described in the research.
• The method's effects are described as robust to variations in range widths and interval grain sizes.
• Findings include observed carryover effects on subsequent judgment tasks.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.

Provenance

Source

Carnegie Mellon University

Collection Method

Experimental data from three psychology studies on judgment bias.