AAP Project 4501: Future Predictions of Demersal Fish Distribution in the Southern Ocean

The Kerguelen Plateau in the Southern Ocean is a climate change hotspot. This dataset contains environmental data, R code, and outputs from a study predicting demersal fish distribution for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s using oceanographic variables from the FESOM model under IPCC scenarios. The data and code were aggregated by the Australian Ocean Data Network.

Use Cases

• Modeling future fish community changes based on predicted oceanographic variables.
• Mapping regions of ecological change in the Southern Ocean based on hierarchical species community models.
• Validating climate impact predictions for demersal species based on IPCC scenario outputs.

Strengths

• Predictions cover four future decades (2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050s).
• Uses oceanographic variables from the published FESOM model.
• Includes both environmental data and the R code used for analysis.

Limitations

• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Raw RSTS data requires separate authorization from the AAD and AFMA.

Provenance

Source

Australian Ocean Data Network

Collection Method

Hierarchical models of species communities (HMSC) applied to modeled oceanographic variables from FESOM under IPCC predictions.

Time Range

Future predictions for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-07-10 00:57:14.226103; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Southern Ocean, specifically the Kerguelen Plateau region.