AAP Project 4501: Future Predictions of Demersal Fish Distribution in the Southern Ocean

Future predictions for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s of demersal fish distribution under climate change scenarios on the Kerguelen Plateau. The dataset contains environmental data, R code, and outputs from a study using hierarchical models of species communities (HMSC) and oceanographic variables from the FESOM model. This record is provided by the Australian Ocean Data Network and was last updated in April 2026.

Use Cases

• Modeling future species community shifts based on predicted oceanographic variables.
• Mapping regions of ecological change for demersal fish based on IPCC climate scenarios.
• Analyzing the impact of climate change hotspots on marine biodiversity.
• Validating hierarchical species distribution models (HMSC) with environmental projections.

Strengths

• Predictions span four future decades (2020s to 2050s), providing a multi-decadal outlook.
• Integrates outputs from a published model (doi:10.25959/4GVK-RM21) and the FESOM oceanographic model.
• Includes environmental data, R code, and visual outputs (PNG, HTML) for reproducibility.

Limitations

• Row count and column-level documentation are unknown, limiting suitability assessment.
• Access to raw RSTS data requires separate authorization from the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) and AFMA.

Provenance

Source

Australian Ocean Data Network

Collection Method

Modeled predictions using hierarchical models of species communities (HMSC) and FESOM oceanographic variables under IPCC scenarios.

Time Range

Future predictions for the 2020s, 2030s,我们发现2040s, and 2050s.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-28 16:07:20.442315; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Kerguelen Plateau in the Southern Ocean.