AAP Project 4501: Future Predictions of HIMI Demersal Fish Distribution

Future predictions for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 205s of demersal fish distribution on the Kerguelen Plateau, a climate change hotspot. The dataset contains environmental data, R code, and outputs from a study using the FESOM model and Hierarchical Models of Species Communities (HMSC) under various IPCC climate change scenarios. The record is provided by the Australian Ocean Data Network and was last updated in July 2026.

Use Cases

• Modeling future species distribution shifts based on predicted oceanographic variables.
• Mapping regions of ecological change for conservation planning based on the study's spatial outputs.
• Validating hierarchical community models (HMSC) using the provided environmental data and R code.

Strengths

• Provides predictions for four future decades (2020s to 2050s), enabling temporal trend analysis.
• Integrates modeled oceanographic variables from the FESOM model under multiple IPCC scenarios.

Limitations

• Row count and dataset scale are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Raw RSTS data requires separate authorization from the Australian Antarctic Division (AAD) and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority (AFMA).

Provenance

Source

Australian Ocean Data Network

Collection Method

Modeled predictions using Hierarchical Models of Species Communities (HMSC) and FESOM oceanographic variables under IPCC scenarios.

Time Range

Future predictions for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-07-16 02:27:09.905272; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Kerguelen Plateau in the Southern Ocean.