Adaptation Atlas: Global Crop Yield Impacts of Pests and Pathogens

Synthesized data from 285 thermal performance curves across 128 pest and pathogen species provides global projections of climate-driven yield impacts for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Produced by Jason Rohr and the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT in 2026, the dataset models shifts in biological performance and proportional yield loss under three CMIP6 climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5).

Use Cases

• Modeling the spatial shift of specific crop pathogens using the thermal performance curves and optimum temperatures derived from the Brière functions
• Estimating proportional changes in yield loss for wheat and rice under the SSP5-8.5 scenario to inform regional food security policies
• Comparing direct climate impacts from ISIMIP3b against indirect effects mediated by pests to identify regions where biological responses dominate yield outcomes

Strengths

• Includes 285 experimentally derived thermal performance curves for 128 distinct pest and pathogen species
• Utilizes five CMIP6 global climate models across three distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5)
• Integrates both direct climate impacts and indirect biological responses to provide a net yield change estimate

Limitations

• Model accuracy is dependent on the underlying Brière function fits, which excluded experiments lacking unimodal responses
• Yield loss estimates rely on published global loss figures which may not capture fine-grained local management practices
• Geographic bias may exist as thermal performance data was screened for known origins, potentially favoring well-studied regions

Provenance

Source

Jason Rohr, The Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT Dataverse

Collection Method

Systematic literature synthesis from Web of Science and climate modeling using CMIP6 and ISIMIP3b

Time Range

Present day to future climate projections (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5)

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-04.

Geography

Global