AFOS: Canada 2025 Federal Election Polling and Market Divergence

April 2025 federal election data cross-referencing prediction market odds, named pollster results, and press coverage to flag divergence. The dataset includes a daily market-odds time series, poll series in long format, a divergence series, and a structured press-coverage index. It was compiled by AFOS Analytics from public Wikipedia aggregations and released via Dataverse in June 2026.

Use Cases

• Analyzing divergence between seat-based market probabilities and vote-share polls based on the described cross-referencing.
• Modeling prediction market price movements in response to political events like leadership changes based on the described time series.
• Studying the performance of named polling institutes in a first-past-the-post system based on the compiled pollster figures.
• Investigating the relationship between press coverage and market sentiment using the structured press-coverage index.

Strengths

• Cross-references three distinct data sources: prediction markets, named polling institutes, and press coverage.
• Includes specific election result figures: Liberals won 169 seats with 43.8% vote share, Conservatives won 144 seats with 41.3% vote share.
• Documents a dramatic market reversal: Conservative win probability fell from near 85% to near 80% for Liberals between January and April 2025.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data freshness should be verified; last metadata update was 2026-06-29.

Provenance

Source

AFOS Analytics Dataverse

Collection Method

Poll figures compiled deterministically from public Wikipedia aggregation (CC BY-SA); each figure traces to a named pollster.

Time Range

Primary coverage around the 2025 federal election, with time series extending from at least January to April 2025.

Freshness

Covers events up to the April 28, 2025 federal election; metadata last updated 2026-06-29.

Geography

Canada (federal election for House of Commons).