Chile 2025 Presidential Election Polls, Markets, and Press Coverage

The 2025 Chilean presidential election, covering the first round on 16 November 2025 and the runoff on 14 December 2025. This dataset cross-references prediction markets, named polling institutes, and press coverage to flag divergence between sources. It was compiled by AFOS Analytics from public data, including Wikipedia's poll aggregation, and released as an observational research resource.

Use Cases

• Analyzing divergence between poll numbers and market odds based on the market-versus-poll divergence series.
• Tracking candidate support over time based on the daily market-odds time series and first-round/runoff polls in long format.
• Studying media influence on electoral perception based on the structured press-coverage index.
• Examining a case study where market predictions diverged from polls but were validated by the final result.

Strengths

• Includes specific election results: first-round winner Jeannette Jara with 26.8% and runoff winner Jose Antonio Kast with 58%.
• Traces poll figures deterministically to named pollsters via a public Wikipedia aggregation.
• Focuses on explicit divergence between sources rather than smoothed averages, highlighting signal over noise.

Limitations

• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.

Provenance

Source

AFOS Analytics Dataverse, with a live mirror maintained at Hugging Face.

Collection Method

Observational research compiling public electoral data from prediction markets (Polymarket), named polling institutes, and press coverage.

Time Range

Centered on the 2025 Chilean presidential election (first round November 2025, runoff December 2025).

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-29 19:22:30; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Chile.