AFOS: France 2024 Legislative Election Divergence Data

France 2024 legislative election data cross-references prediction markets, polling institutes, and press coverage to flag divergence between sources. The dataset includes 52 first-round vote-intention polls, 44 seat-projection polls, daily market-odds series, and official results from the two-round election held on 30 June and 7 July 2024. AFOS Analytics built this observational dataset to FAIR and tidy-data norms, with a machine-readable datapackage.json and SHA-256 checksums.

Use Cases

• Analyzing divergence between prediction markets and traditional polls based on the market-versus-poll divergence table.
• Studying the evolution of seat projections based on the 44-poll seat-projection series.
• Investigating the relationship between market volume and forecast accuracy based on the referenced high-volume market data.
• Building models for political risk intelligence based on cross-referenced data from markets, polls, and press coverage.

Strengths

• Includes 52 first-round vote-intention polls and 44 seat-projection polls, providing a detailed time series.
• Cross-references data from named pollsters, prediction markets (like Polymarket), and a structured press-coverage index.
• Built to FAIR, tidy-data, and AAPOR-disclosure norms with validated machine-readable metadata (datapackage.json, croissant.json).

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment for specific modeling tasks.
• Description metadata is limited; actual data structure and file formats require manual inspection.

Provenance

Source

AFOS Analytics Dataverse, with data parsed from the public Wikipedia aggregation (CC BY-SA).

Collection Method

Deterministic parsing of public electoral data, cross-referencing prediction markets, polls, and press coverage.

Time Range

Covers the 2024 French legislative election period, including the two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-07-18 02:07:31; freshness should be verified.

Geography

France, specifically National Assembly electoral divisions.