AFOS · Mexico 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset

AFOS Analytics cross-references prediction markets, named polling institutes, and press coverage for the 2024 Mexican presidential election. The dataset flags explicit divergence between sources instead of providing smoothed averages. It includes poll series in long format, daily market-odds time series, a market-versus-poll divergence series, a structured press-coverage index, and structural context.

Use Cases

• Analyze the divergence between prediction market odds and polling aggregates based on the market-versus-poll divergence series.
• Study the evolution of candidate win probabilities based on the daily market-odds time series.
• Compare polling institute performance and trends based on the long-format poll series compiled from Wikipedia.
• Examine media coverage intensity and its relationship to electoral signals based on the structured press-coverage index.

Strengths

• Cross-references multiple data sources: prediction markets (Polymarket), named polling institutes, and press coverage.
• Traces poll figures deterministically to named pollsters via a public Wikipedia aggregation.
• Focuses on flagging explicit divergence between sources rather than providing averaged figures.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Contains only public electoral data; no personal or granular voting data is included.

Provenance

Source

AFOS Analytics Dataverse, with poll figures compiled from the public Wikipedia aggregation (CC BY-SA).

Collection Method

Observational research compiling public data from prediction markets, polling institutes, and press coverage.

Time Range

Covers the 2024 Mexican presidential election cycle, with data points from at least January 2024 onward.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-29 19:40:54; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Mexico, specifically the 2024 presidential election.