AFOS: UK 2024 Election Prediction Market and Polling Divergence

AFOS Analytics cross-references prediction markets, named polling institutes, and press coverage for the UK's 4 July 2024 general election. The dataset flags explicit divergence between sources, such as the market giving Labour a 99% chance of winning the most seats while polls measured around 40% of vote intention. It includes poll series in long format, a daily market-odds time series, a divergence series, a press-coverage index, and structural context.

Use Cases

• Analyzing the gap between seat-based market predictions and vote-share polling based on the described divergence series.
• Studying the efficiency of political prediction markets based on the US$1.76 million total volume mentioned.
• Comparing named polling institute results over time based on the long-format poll series.
• Investigating media coverage patterns around elections based on the structured press-coverage index.

Strengths

• Cross-references multiple data sources: prediction markets (Polymarket), named polling institutes, and press coverage.
• Includes a daily market-odds time series and a market-versus-poll divergence series.
• Poll figures trace deterministically to named pollsters via a public Wikipedia aggregation.
• Contains official election results, including seat counts and vote percentages for major parties.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data is observational research, not intended for investment advice or voting guidance.

Provenance

Source

AFOS Analytics Dataverse

Collection Method

Poll figures compiled deterministically from the public Wikipedia aggregation (CC BY-SA); market data from Polymarket.

Time Range

Covers the 2024 UK general election (4 July 2024).

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-29 19:36:58; freshness should be verified.

Geography

United Kingdom (House of Commons constituencies).