AFOS: 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Polls, Markets, and Press Divergence

AFOS - USA 2024 Electoral Divergence Dataset cross-references opinion polls, prediction markets, and press coverage for the 2024 U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. The dataset reports sources side-by-side with explicit divergence rather than a blended average, including where the market was wrong, and uses the real election result as the validator. It was created by Felipe, Andre of AFOS Analytics and last updated on June 20, 2026.

Use Cases

• Analyze the divergence between prediction market probabilities and national poll results based on the time-series data.
• Study the accuracy of the largest election market in history (Polymarket's electoral college market) based on the reported win-probability series.
• Compare media coverage timelines with polling and market data based on the archived press timeline.
• Investigate forecasting errors, such as the popular-vote market's incorrect prediction, based on the documented divergence.

Strengths

• Includes data from a major prediction market handling approximately US$3.7 billion, described as the largest election market in history.
• Uses the real 2024 election result (Trump 49.8% vs Harris 48.3% popular vote) as the validation benchmark.
• Sources national poll toplines from FiveThirtyEight's 2024 database via a Wayback Machine snapshot from November 4, 2024.

Limitations

• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.

Provenance

Source

FiveThirtyEight's 2024 database (via Internet Archive), Polymarket prediction markets, and a curated press timeline.

Collection Method

Observational research involving cross-referencing and divergence calculation.

Time Range

Covers the 2024 U.S. presidential election period.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-06-20 01:59:24; freshness should be verified.

Geography

United States.