Projected Bilateral Migration Flows in Africa Under Climate Scenarios

2,070 unique directed migration corridors connect 46 African countries in projections from 2015 to 2050. The data models future migration flows under combinations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios. The Africa Climate Mobility Initiative, a joint effort of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, African Union Commission, UN, and World Bank, produced this dataset to underpin the African Shifts Report.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected migration volume changes for specific origin-receiving country pairs under different SSP-RCP scenario combinations.
• Model the sensitivity of corridor-specific migration flows to varying climate (RCP) and development (SSP) pathways.
• Identify countries projected to be major sources or destinations of climate-influenced migration across the 2015-2050 time horizon.
• Validate demographic models by comparing projected bilateral flows against historical migration data where available.

Strengths

• Covers 2,070 unique directed migration corridors between all 46 African countries.
• Provides projections at 5-year intervals across a 35-year time range from 2015 to 2050.
• Enables analysis across 6 distinct future scenarios combining 2 SSPs and 3 RCPs.

Limitations

• Projection accuracy is contingent on underlying model assumptions and scenario validity.
• Lacks granular sub-national or city-level origin-destination data.
• Does not include observed historical migration data for model calibration or comparison.

Provenance

Source

Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI), enabled by the Global Centre for Climate Mobility.

Collection Method

Model-based projections under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios.

Time Range

2015 to 2050

Freshness

Projections extend to 2050, with the dataset last updated in 2050.

Geography

African continent (46 countries)