African Internal Migration Projections Under Climate Scenarios

Projections model internal migration flows across Africa at 5-year intervals from 2020 to 2050. The data is aggregated to a 7.5 arc-minute grid resolution, covering the entire continent. This work was produced by the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative, a joint effort of the Global Centre for Climate Mobility, African Union Commission, UN, and World Bank, and underpins the African Shifts Report.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected migration flows between 7.5 arc-minute grid cells under different SSP and RCP scenarios.
• Assess spatial patterns of climate-induced population displacement across Africa from 2020 to 2050.
• Model the impact of specific climate pathways (RCPs) on internal migration using the scenario-based projections.
• Validate demographic models by comparing projected migration at 5-year intervals against historical trends.

Strengths

• Projections cover a 30-year time range from 2020 to 2050.
• Data provides continent-wide coverage of Africa at a 7.5 arc-minute grid resolution.
• Model incorporates multiple future scenarios combining 2 SSP and 3 RCP pathways.

Limitations

• Projection data is aggregated from a higher 2.5 arc-minute calibration resolution, losing some granularity.
• Data represents modeled future scenarios, not observed historical migration records.

Provenance

Source

Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI), enabled by the Global Centre for Climate Mobility.

Collection Method

Modeled projections calibrated at 2.5 arc-minutes and aggregated to 7.5 arc-minute vector grid cells.

Time Range

2020 to 2050 at 5-year intervals.

Freshness

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Geography

Entire African continent.