AI Futures 2025: 3,706 Labeled AI Industry Forecasting Questions

3,706 forecasting questions regarding AI industry developments, model releases, and agentic deployments were compiled by LightningRodLabs. The collection spans January 2025 to January 2026 and features binary outcomes verified through web search using a 'Future-as-Label' methodology.

Use Cases

• Benchmarking LLM forecasting capabilities using the binary outcome labels
• Analyzing AI industry trends by categorizing the 3,706 foresight questions
• Fine-tuning models for predictive text generation based on 2025 AI news events

Strengths

• 3,706 unique forecasting questions
• Binary outcomes verified via web search
• MIT licensed for open research use

Limitations

• Geographic bias toward the United States market
• Binary labels may oversimplify complex or nuanced industry developments
• Temporal scope is restricted to a single year (2025-2026)

Provenance

Source

LightningRodLabs (Arxiv: 2601.06336)

Collection Method

Future-as-Label methodology using news articles and web search verification

Time Range

2025-01 to 2026-01

Freshness

Last updated February 2026; covers events through January 2026.

Geography

United States