Bladder Cancer Burden in Africa 2010-2030 with COVID-19 Impact

Bladder cancer burden metrics for the African Union and 54 countries from 2010 to 2023, with projections to 2030. The dataset includes counts and age-standardized rates for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023. It was authored by Cui Yan and analyzes temporal trends, demographic drivers, and COVID-19-period deviations.

Use Cases

• Model projected burden to 2030 for each country using log-linear forecasts based on historical incidence and death counts.
• Analyze geographic heterogeneity by mapping age-standardized rates (ASRs) for incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs across 54 African countries.
• Partition changes in case counts using Das Gupta decomposition to quantify contributions from population growth, aging, and epidemiological change.
• Evaluate COVID-19-period deviations by comparing observed incidence and deaths to autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) counterfactual models for 2020-2023.
• Cluster countries into incidence trajectory phenotypes using dynamic time warping on temporal trends from 2010 to 2023.

Strengths

• Provides 14 years of historical data (2010-2023) and 7-year projections (to 2030) for long-term trend analysis.
• Includes four core burden metrics—incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)—as both counts and age-standardized rates.
• Covers the African Union and all 54 African countries for comprehensive geographic analysis.
• Analytical outputs include estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), decomposition results, and counterfactual model deviations.

Limitations

• Dataset size is 432.2 KB, indicating a summary or aggregated dataset rather than raw, record-level patient data.
• Data is derived from modeled Global Burden of Disease estimates, which may contain inherent estimation uncertainties.
• Projections to 2030 are based on log-linear models and may not account for future, unforeseen policy or healthcare changes.

Provenance

Source

Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 estimates.

Collection Method

Population-based secondary analysis using GBD 2023 data, with temporal trend quantification, decomposition, counterfactual modeling, and projection.

Time Range

2010 to 2023 (historical), with projections to 2030.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026, based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 estimates.

Geography

African Union and 54 African countries.