Global Economic Impact of the 2026 Iran–US War: Hybrid Analysis of 19 Economies

A hybrid econometric analysis combines event-driven time-series and comparative cross-sectional data covering 19 economies and a World aggregate. The study proposes and calibrates five novel econometric models to assess the war's impact. The dataset was authored by Gabriel Osei Forkuo and last updated on April 27, 2026.

Use Cases

• Modeling commodity price contagion based on the Multi-Commodity Contagion Index (MCCI) framework
• Assessing country-level economic vulnerability based on the Hormuz Chokepoint Vulnerability Index (HCVI) regression
• Analyzing nonlinear inflation-unemployment dynamics based on the Geopolitical Stagflation Surface (GSS) model
• Detecting structural breaks in oil market risk premiums based on the Threshold Structural Break Model (TSBM)
• Simulating supply-chain amplification effects based on the Cascading Supply-Chain Amplification Model (CSCAM) input-output framework

Strengths

• Analysis covers 19 distinct economies plus a World aggregate.
• Proposes five distinct, novel econometric models for analysis.
• Dataset is 3.3 MB in size and includes multiple file formats (PDF, PNG, PY, XLSX).

Limitations

• Row count and column-level documentation are absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.

Provenance

Source

Gabriel Osei Forkuo via figshare

Collection Method

Hybrid research design combining event-driven time-series analysis with comparative cross-sectional analysis.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-27 11:52:14; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Covers 19 economies and a World aggregate; specific countries are not listed.