Brazil's burden of smoking in 2015 was estimated using mathematical microsimulation and tax models. Smoking was responsible for 156,337 deaths and BRL 56.9 billion in total costs. The study, by Márcia Pinto, modeled that a 50% cigarette price increase could avert 136,482 deaths and generate BRL 97.9 billion in economic benefit over 10 years.
Use Cases
- Modeling the economic burden of smoking based on direct healthcare and indirect productivity costs.
- Simulating the health impact of tax policies on mortality and disease incidence.
- Estimating years of potential life lost (YPLL) attributable to a specific risk factor.
- Forecasting reductions in cardiovascular disease and cancer cases from price increase scenarios.
Strengths
- Provides specific, quantified estimates for 2015: 156,337 deaths, 4.2 million years of life lost, and BRL 56.9 billion in costs.
- Models multiple scenarios, projecting outcomes like 136,482 deaths averted from a 50% price increase.
- Distinguishes between direct healthcare costs (70%) and indirect productivity costs.
Limitations
- Row count and column-level documentation are absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
- Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.
- Data may reflect modeling assumptions and input data bias inherent to the original study.
Provenance
- Source
- Márcia Pinto
- Collection Method
- Mathematical model based on probabilistic microsimulation and a separate tax model for scenario analysis.
- Time Range
- 2015 (baseline year) with 10-year projections.
- Geography
- Brazil