CDC COVID-19 Ensemble Forecasts for Cases and Deaths

Weekly ensemble forecasts for COVID-19 incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths were generated by CDC partners through the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Forecasts cover national, state, and county levels, though county-level case data is incomplete. These forecasts were discontinued for cases in February 2022 and for deaths in March 2023.

Use Cases

• Benchmark new forecasting models against the `point` and `quantile_*` predictions for `target` variables like 'inc cases' and 'inc death'.
• Analyze forecast uncertainty over time using `quantile_0025`, `quantile_975`, and `num_weeks_ahead_forecast` columns.
• Compare model submissions across `location_type` (national, state, county) using `location_name` and `fips` codes.
• Study the evolution of forecast signals by joining on `date_forecast_submitted` and `date_corr_to_MMWR_week`.

Strengths

• Forecasts generated weekly by multiple models from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub consortium.
• Includes probabilistic forecasts via multiple quantile columns (`quantile_025`, `quantile_975`).
• Covers three distinct forecast `target` types: incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths.

Limitations

• County-level forecasts for incident cases are described as 'missing or incomplete for many models and dates'.
• Forecasts for incident cases were discontinued in February 2022, limiting temporal coverage for that target.
• Not all models submitted forecasts for all `location_name`, dates, and `target` combinations.

Provenance

Source

data.cdc.gov, aggregating submissions to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub.

Collection Method

Mathematical models from CDC partners were combined into a weekly ensemble forecast.

Time Range

Covers the active forecasting period until discontinuation in early 2023.

Freshness

Archive last updated in April 2023; forecasting activity discontinued in early 2023.

Geography

United States at national, state/territory, and county levels.