Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Cerrado Fruit Oil Economic Feasibility

A 100,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation evaluates the economic feasibility of extracting bioactive oils from native Brazilian Cerrado fruits. The dataset contains saved variables for the 'FCO Integral' financing scenario from a technical-economic study authored by Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza. It was last updated in April 2026.

Use Cases

• Analyze the influence of market_demand and production_volume on Net Present Value (NPV) variability using tornado diagram results.
• Assess the probability of economic feasibility (NPV >= 0) for the FCO Integral scenario, reported as 71.31%.
• Compare financial indicators like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (IL), and Discounted Payback between different WACC financing scenarios.
• Model asymmetric risk profiles using simulated maximum loss (equity capital) and maximum projected gain (approximately R$ 2.0 million).
• Validate stochastic financial models for bioprospecting projects using PERT distributions for eight critical input variables.

Strengths

• High-fidelity simulation based on 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations.
• Includes eight critical variables modeled with PERT distributions for realistic uncertainty.
• Clear provenance from a defined academic study with a ten-year analysis horizon and total investment of R$ 451,674.34.

Limitations

• Dataset scale is small (30.5 MB), likely containing only summary or scenario data, not all 100,000 iterations.
• Geographic focus is exclusively on the Brazilian Cerrado, limiting generalizability to other biomes.
• Specific row count and column details are unknown, hindering precise assessment of data granularity.

Provenance

Source

figshare, authored by Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza.

Collection Method

Variables saved from a Monte Carlo simulation based on a financial model (DRE, WACC via CAPM).

Time Range

Analysis covers a ten-year project horizon.

Freshness

Last updated in April 2026.

Geography

Brazilian Cerrado biome.