Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Cerrado Fruit Oil Project Feasibility

Monte Carlo simulation results evaluate the economic viability of extracting oil from native Brazilian Cerrado fruits. The dataset contains 100,000 simulation iterations for a project with a total investment of R$ 451,674.34 and a ten-year analysis horizon. Author Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza published the data in April 2026.

Use Cases

• Analyze the probability of economic viability (NPV >= 0) for the FCO Integral financing scenario using the 71.31% result from the simulation.
• Model the asymmetric risk profile by examining simulated maximum loss (R$ 135,502.30) and maximum projected gain (approximately R$ 2.0 million).
• Assess the influence of market demand and production volume on Net Present Value variability using tornado diagram results.
• Compare financial indicators like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Discounted Payback between FCO Verde and FCO Integral financing scenarios.
• Validate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Hamada equation parameters used to calculate the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of 8.25% per year.

Strengths

• Dataset is based on a large-scale Monte Carlo simulation with 100,000 iterations.
• Analysis includes eight critical variables modeled with PERT distributions for stochastic evaluation.
• Financial model is detailed, incorporating a full income statement (DRE) and multiple investment indicators over a ten-year horizon.

Limitations

• Dataset scale is limited to 30.5 MB, suggesting it contains aggregated simulation results rather than raw iteration data.
• Geographic focus is specific to the Brazilian Cerrado biome, limiting direct applicability to other regions.
• Underlying assumptions for variables like market demand and production volume are not explicitly detailed in the provided description.

Provenance

Source

figshare, authored by Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza.

Collection Method

Data generated from a stochastic financial model using Monte Carlo simulation for economic feasibility analysis.

Time Range

Project analysis covers a ten-year horizon.

Freshness

Data was last updated in April 2026.

Geography

Focus on the Brazilian Cerrado biome.