Monte Carlo Simulation Data for Economic Feasibility of Cerrado Fruit Oils

Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza published a spreadsheet containing Monte Carlo simulation results for a technical and economic feasibility study. The analysis models a 10-year project for extracting oils from native Brazilian Cerrado fruits like Pequi and Buriti. The dataset was uploaded to figshare in April 2026.

Use Cases

• Analyze the influence of market_demand and production_volume on Net Present Value (NPV) variability using tornado diagram results.
• Compare financial indicators like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), and Discounted Payback between FCO Verde and FCO Integral funding scenarios.
• Assess risk profiles by examining the simulated probability of economic viability (NPV ≥ 0) and the asymmetric distribution of maximum loss and gain.
• Model capital costs using the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) calculated via the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Hamada's equation.
• Replicate the stochastic analysis using the PERT distributions defined for eight critical variables over 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations.

Strengths

• Simulation includes 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations for robust probabilistic analysis.
• Financial model covers a 10-year analysis horizon with a defined total investment of R$ 451,674.34.
• Analysis evaluates two distinct funding scenarios (FCO Verde and FCO Integral) with different WACC rates.

Limitations

• Dataset scale is limited to 30.5 MB, suggesting a contained simulation output without extensive raw input data.
• The underlying project data is specific to a small-scale, lab/artisanal cold-pressing operation, limiting generalizability to industrial scales.
• Sample size for deterministic results is based on a single modal scenario.

Provenance

Source

Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza via figshare.

Collection Method

Generated via Monte Carlo simulation using PERT distributions for critical variables within a financial model.

Time Range

Models a 10-year project horizon.

Freshness

Last updated in April 2026.

Geography

Focuses on native fruits (e.g., Pequi, Buriti, Baru) from the Brazilian Cerrado biome.