Monte Carlo Simulation Results for Brazilian Cerrado Fruit Oil Economic Feasibility

A spreadsheet from a 2026 study by Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza saves one scenario from a Monte Carlo simulation. The analysis models the financial viability of extracting oils from native Brazilian Cerrado fruits like Pequi and Buriti. It contains 100,000 simulation iterations evaluating key financial indicators under two funding scenarios.

Use Cases

• Analyze the probability of economic viability (NPV >= 0) for the FCO Verde and FCO Integral funding scenarios.
• Model the influence of market demand and production volume variables on Net Present Value variability using tornado diagram results.
• Compare deterministic financial indicators like Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), and Discounted Payback between the two WACC scenarios.
• Assess the asymmetric risk profile by examining simulated maximum loss and projected maximum gain figures.
• Validate stochastic modeling approaches using the defined PERT distributions for eight critical input variables.

Strengths

• Contains results from 100,000 Monte Carlo simulation iterations for robust probabilistic analysis.
• Models two distinct financing scenarios (FCO Verde and FCO Integral) with defined WACC rates of 6.96% and 8.25%.
• Evaluates a ten-year analysis horizon with a total investment of R$ 451,674.34.

Limitations

• The dataset is 30.5 MB, indicating a small-scale simulation output file.
• Specific row count and column structure are unknown, limiting precise assessment of data volume.
• Geographic focus is exclusively on the Brazilian Cerrado, limiting generalizability to other biomes.

Provenance

Source

figshare, authored by Raphael Luiz Fernandes Marques de Souza.

Collection Method

Generated via Monte Carlo simulation with PERT distributions for critical variables, based on a deterministic financial model (DRE, CAPM).

Time Range

Analysis covers a ten-year project horizon.

Freshness

Last updated in April 2026.

Geography

Brazilian Cerrado biome.