Circumpolar Antarctic Krill Growth Potential Under Climate Scenarios

Eleven Earth System Models project seasonal Antarctic krill growth potential from 1960-1989 and under future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2070-2099. Growth potential is modeled as a function of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a concentrations, serving as a habitat quality proxy. The dataset was produced by the Australian Antarctic Data Centre using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive.

Use Cases

• Compare historical (1960-1989) and future (2070-2099) krill growth potential from sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a inputs.
• Analyze seasonal variability in krill habitat quality using the weighted subset outputs for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
• Validate Earth System Model skill in reproducing observation-based growth potential for 1997-2010 using Taylor Diagram metrics.
• Assess spatial changes in circumpolar krill growth potential on a 1°x1° grid under different carbon emission pathways.

Strengths

• Uses outputs from 11 distinct Earth System Models for robustness.
• Provides projections for two standard IPCC climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5).
• Covers a long temporal range, from historical (1960-1989) to future (2070-2099) periods.
• Model skill is assessed and weighted against satellite observation-based data from 1997-2010.

Limitations

• Growth potential is an approximation of habitat quality based solely on sea surface temperature and chlorophyll-a.
• Future projections rely on model ensembles, introducing inherent climate projection uncertainties.
• Spatial resolution is limited to a 1°x1° grid after bilinear interpolation.

Provenance

Source

Australian Antarctic Data Centre (AU_AADC) using CMIP5 archive outputs.

Collection Method

Krill growth potential calculated from Earth System Model outputs of SST and chlorophyll-a using an empirically-derived growth model.

Time Range

Historical: 1960-1989; Observation-based: 1997-2010; Future projections: 2070-2099.

Freshness

Projections extend to 2099; the dataset itself has a last updated date of 2099-12-31.

Geography

Circumpolar Antarctic region.