Southeast U.S. Cyclogenesis Case Study from 1998

COMET Case Study 015 documents the life cycle of a low-pressure system moving from Arkansas to Illinois in 1998. The dataset provides a specific example of errors in the AVN weather model, where inherent biases led to an incorrect prediction of strong cyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico. It was compiled by SCIOPS for educational and research purposes.

Use Cases

• Analyze time-series evolution of atmospheric pressure fields to track the low-pressure system's development.
• Compare model-predicted cyclogenesis locations against observed geospatial data to quantify AVN model bias.
• Study the geospatial trajectory of the weather system from Arkansas to Illinois using location and time data.
• Use the documented model error over the Gulf of Mexico as a benchmark for testing improved numerical weather prediction algorithms.

Strengths

• Focuses on a single, well-documented meteorological event for in-depth case study analysis.
• Provides a concrete example of operational weather model (AVN) biases with identified error impacts.

Limitations

• Data is from a single event in 1998, limiting generalizability and temporal relevance for modern models.
• Specific data volume, file formats, and column details are not provided in the source description.

Provenance

Source

UCAR/JOSS/NOAA/CODIAC via NASA Earthdata platform.

Collection Method

Case study compilation following a specific weather event, likely incorporating observational data and model outputs.

Time Range

1998, covering the life cycle of the documented low-pressure system.

Freshness

null

Geography

Southeastern United States, including Arkansas, Illinois, and the Gulf of Mexico.