African Swine Fever Transmission Paths from Europe to China via Wild Boar

A 2018 epidemiological study assessed potential transboundary transmission paths of African swine fever (ASF) from European Russia to China via wild boar. Researchers from Northeast Forestry University plotted Least Cost Paths and predicted arrival dates based on cumulative seasonal transmission distances. The analysis suggests a high cost for crossing Xinjiang or Mongolia, with a more viable eastward path through Siberia taking a minimum of 219 or 260 days.

Use Cases

• Modeling wildlife disease transmission corridors based on geospatial path analysis.
• Predicting outbreak arrival times based on cumulative seasonal transmission distances.
• Assessing geographical barriers to disease spread, such as the high cost of crossing Xinjiang or Mongolia.

Strengths

• Analysis includes specific predicted minimum transmission times of 219 or 260 days.
• Study focuses on a concrete epidemiological event: the multi-focal ASF outbreaks in China in 2018.
• Methodology is described, involving Least Cost Paths and cumulative maximum transmission distances.

Limitations

• The underlying dataset (e.g., specific geospatial coordinates, boar movement data) is not described or accessible.
• Row count and data format are unknown, limiting suitability assessment.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred from the paper.

Provenance

Source

Northeast Forestry University

Collection Method

Research paper analyzing potential transmission paths using geospatial modeling (Least Cost Paths).

Time Range

Focuses on the 2018 African swine fever outbreak period.

Geography

Eastern Europe to Northeast China, via Siberia, Xinjiang, and Mongolia.