Climate Suitability Projections for 44 Forest Species and 49 Genetic Groups in Spain
by Eulogio Chacón-Moreno·Updated 1mo ago
1.0 MB1files
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Description
44 forest species and 49 genetic groups were modeled for future climatic suitability across Spain using an ensemble of 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The framework, developed by Eulogio Chacón-Moreno, integrates species-level responses, genetic differentiation, and explicit uncertainty analysis at a 1 km² resolution. Projections cover three future time horizons (2021–2050, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) and were last updated in April 2026.
Use Cases
Identify climate-resilient refugia for specific tree lineages based on genetic-group level projections.
Plan assisted migration or provenance transfer strategies based on projected suitability contractions and expansions.
Assess uncertainty in future habitat suitability using the Percentage of Climate Models Predicting Suitability (PCM-PS) metric.
Compare biogeographical reorganization of forest species under different emission scenarios (SSPs).
Strengths
Explicit uncertainty quantification using an ensemble of 10 climate models and the PCM-PS metric.
High spatial resolution (1 km²) derived from downscaling data from over 5,500 meteorological stations.
Analysis covers 93 total taxa, including 44 species and 49 intra-specific genetic groups.
Framework integrates multiple future time horizons and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
Limitations
The dataset is a 1.0 MB PDF; underlying tabular or geospatial data files are not specified.
Column-level documentation and sample data are unavailable, requiring manual inspection of the PDF.
Row count and specific data structure are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment for direct analysis.
Provenance
Source
Eulogio Chacón-Moreno via figshare.
Collection Method
Integrated statistical modeling framework using ensemble species distribution models calibrated with climatic predictors from CMIP6 models.
Time Range
Future projections for 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100.
Freshness
Last updated 2026-04-21 10:01:48.
Geography
Spain (Iberian Peninsula).
Primary data is shared as a PDF (1.0 MB); users may need to extract or request underlying model outputs for computational analysis. License is CC-BY-4.0.