GERD and Asthma Burden Trends Across Three Global Regions

Epidemiological analysis compares gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and asthma co-burden patterns across East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America. The dataset includes age-standardized prevalence rates, trend analyses from 1994 to 2023, and forecasts for 2024-2033. It was created by Yinghan Deng using Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates.

Use Cases

• Analyze age-standardized prevalence rates for GERD and asthma across the three regions to identify geographic disparities.
• Model temporal trends and generate forecasts using ETS/ARIMA methods on the 1994-2023 time series data.
• Assess associations between disease burden and risk factors like diet high in red meat or high fasting plasma glucose via negative binomial regression.
• Investigate regional effect modification using exposure × region interaction models to test for geographic heterogeneity in driver associations.
• Explore shared metabolic and lifestyle drivers for GERD and asthma comorbidity using Random Forest with SHAP screening.

Strengths

• Data sourced from the authoritative Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates.
• Covers a 30-year temporal range from 1994 to 2023 and includes forecasts for 2024-2033.
• Analysis compares three distinct global regions: East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America.
• Employs multiple analytical methods including Joinpoint regression, ETS/ARIMA forecasting, and structural equation modeling.

Limitations

• The dataset is small in scale at 67.3 KB, indicating limited raw data volume.
• Specific row counts and column structures are not provided in the input.
• Geographic coverage is limited to three representative regions, not a global census.

Provenance

Source

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates.

Collection Method

Multi-method analysis including Spearman correlation, Joinpoint regression, ETS/ARIMA forecasting, Random Forest with SHAP, negative binomial regression, and structural equation modeling.

Time Range

1994 to 2023, with forecasts for 2024 to 2033.

Freshness

Last updated March 26, 2026, based on GBD 2023 estimates.

Geography

East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America.