Stochastic SEIR Model for Measles Outbreak Scenarios in Northern British Columbia, 2025

Michael A. Irvine published a mathematical modeling study on figshare in 2026. The dataset likely contains parameters and results from a stochastic SEIR-like model calibrated to measles outbreaks in two regions of Northern British Columbia, Canada, during 2025. It was used to simulate scenarios involving public health interventions, mobility, and school terms.

Use Cases

• Calibrating stochastic epidemic models based on outbreak data mentioned in the description
• Simulating the impact of public health interventions like post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) based on scenario parameters
• Assessing the effect of inter-region mobility on outbreak probability as described in the study
• Evaluating how school term timing influences outbreak initiation probability as modeled

Strengths

• Model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation rejection scheme, a specific methodological approach.
• Scenarios are based on concrete public health factors: active case finding, PEP, mobility, and school semester start.

Limitations

• The dataset is described only in a 917 KB PDF file; underlying structured data (e.g., model parameters, simulation outputs) is not directly accessible.
• Row count and column-level documentation are unknown, which limits suitability assessment for direct computational use.

Provenance

Source

Michael A. Irvine via figshare

Collection Method

Mathematical modeling study using a stochastic SEIR-like model calibrated to outbreak data.

Time Range

2025

Freshness

Last updated 2026-05-14 05:43:24

Geography

Northern British Columbia, Canada