China's CO2 Emissions and Carbon Neutrality Projections Under SSP Scenarios

Projections of China's anthropogenic CO2 emissions and nature-based carbon neutrality capacity from 2021 to 2100 under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The analysis includes regional breakdowns, identifies peak emission years, and quantifies carbon sink contributions from areas like the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Use Cases

• Compare projected annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions across SSP1-SSP4 scenarios to model peak timing between 2029 and 2032.
• Analyze spatiotemporal disparities in carbon neutrality capacity (CNC) percentages across Chinese regions like the Northwest and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
• Evaluate the relationship between projected clean energy shares and achieving carbon neutrality goals (CNC >100%) by 2060.
• Investigate population size as a driving factor for CO2 emissions, particularly in underdeveloped regions.

Strengths

• Provides specific emission projections, such as a peak of 1.18 (±0.14) × 10^4 Mt CO2.
• Includes quantitative carbon neutrality capacity (CNC) percentages for decades like the 2030s (21.7% ± 6.8%) and 2060s (31.3% ± 8.1%).
• Offers regional granularity, identifying key carbon sink regions like the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau with CNC of 351.2% ± 297.6%.

Limitations

• Data is presented in a PDF report (3.4 MB), not a structured, machine-readable tabular format, limiting direct computational analysis.
• The underlying raw data tables, row counts, and column definitions are unavailable for validation or model training.
• Projections are model-based and depend on SSP scenario assumptions, introducing uncertainty.

Provenance

Source

Chenxi Han via figshare.

Collection Method

Integrated assessment combining multiple emission inventories and an updated STIRPAT model under SSP scenarios.

Time Range

Recent and future projections from 2021 to 2100, with specific analysis for 2021-2060.

Freshness

Projections extend to 2100; the dataset itself was last updated in March 2026.

Geography

Mainland China, with regional breakdowns (e.g., Northwest, Northeast, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China).