Climate Suitability Projections for 44 Forest Species and Genetic Groups in Spain

Eulogio Chacón-Moreno's dataset provides climate suitability projections for forest planning in Spain. It includes models for 44 forest species, 12 of which are analyzed at the genetic-group level, resulting in 93 total taxa. The data, last updated in 2026, uses downscaled climate projections from 10 CMIP6 models across four emission scenarios and three future time horizons.

Use Cases

• Identifying climate-resilient refugia for specific forest genetic lineages based on genetic-group level projections.
• Assessing biogeographical shifts in species suitability under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
• Quantifying uncertainty in future habitat suitability using the Percentage of Climate Models Predicting Suitability (PCM-PS) metric.
• Informing local adaptive provenance transfer strategies for forest restoration based on projected contraction and expansion trends.

Strengths

• Integrates species-level and genetic-group level projections for 93 total taxa, including 49 genetic groups.
• Uses an ensemble of climate projections from 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models under four SSPs and three future time horizons.
• Climate data is statistically downscaled to a 1 km² resolution using observations from over 5,500 meteorological stations.
• Explicitly quantifies projection uncertainty with the PCM-PS metric.

Limitations

• The dataset is a 1.2 MB PDF; the underlying tabular or geospatial data files are not directly accessible.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred from the PDF report.
• Row count and exact data structure are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment for direct analysis.

Provenance

Source

Eulogio Chacón-Moreno via figshare

Collection Method

An integrated statistical modelling framework using species distribution models calibrated with an ensemble of algorithms.

Time Range

Future projections for horizons 2021–2050, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-04-21 10:01:48

Geography

Iberian Peninsula, Spain