GERD and Asthma Co-Burden Trends Across Three Global Regions

Yinghan Deng's analysis uses Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates to examine co-occurrence patterns of gastroesophageal reflux disease and asthma. The study compares East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America from 1994 to 2023, forecasting trends to 2033. It quantifies associations with dietary and metabolic risk factors like sugar-sweetened beverages and fasting plasma glucose.

Use Cases

• Analyze regional trends in GERD and asthma age-standardised prevalence using Joinpoint regression and ETS/ARIMA forecasts
• Model associations between disease burden and risk factors like diet high in red meat or low physical activity via negative binomial regression
• Assess geographic heterogeneity in driver effects, such as fasting glucose's association with asthma, using exposure × region interaction models
• Explore temporal directionality and pathways between GERD and asthma using Granger causality and structural equation modelling

Strengths

• Data spans 30 years (1994–2023) with forecasts to 2033, providing long-term trend analysis
• Analysis covers three distinct global regions: East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America
• Employs multiple statistical methods including Joinpoint regression, Random Forest with SHAP, and negative binomial regression
• Reports specific prevalence rates, such as 16,591 per 100,000 for GERD in Tropical Latin America in 2023

Limitations

• Dataset scope is limited to 714.5 KB, indicating a summary or processed results file rather than raw underlying data
• Analysis is confined to three specific regions, limiting global generalizability
• Input does not specify row count or column structure, hindering assessment of data volume and granularity

Provenance

Source

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, analyzed by Yinghan Deng and shared on figshare.

Collection Method

Multi-method analysis including Spearman correlation, Joinpoint regression, forecasting, Random Forest with SHAP, negative binomial regression, and structural equation modelling.

Time Range

1994–2023, with forecasts for 2024–2033.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026, using GBD 2023 estimates.

Geography

East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America.