Ecological Co-burden Patterns of GERD and Asthma Across Global Regions

Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates from 1994 to 2023 compare GERD and asthma prevalence in East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America. The dataset includes age-standardized prevalence rates, trend analyses, and forecasts for 2024-2033, with associations to dietary and metabolic risk factors. It was created by Yinghan Deng using GBD data and multi-method statistical analysis.

Use Cases

• Analyze age-standardized GERD and asthma prevalence rates across three global regions to identify geographic disparities.
• Model temporal trends and generate 2024-2033 forecasts for disease burden using ETS/ARIMA methods on the 1994-2023 time series.
• Assess associations between disease prevalence and specific risk factors like diet high in red meat, sugar-sweetened beverages, and high fasting plasma glucose.
• Test for regional effect modification in risk factor associations, such as the inverse relationship of fasting glucose with asthma in High-income North America.

Strengths

• Data spans 30 years (1994-2023) of Global Burden of Disease estimates.
• Includes forecasts for a 10-year period (2024-2033).
• Compares three distinct global regions: East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America.
• Reports specific prevalence rates, such as 16,591 per 100,000 for GERD in Tropical Latin America in 2023.

Limitations

• Limited to three global regions, not a worldwide sample of all populations.
• Ecological study design uses aggregated regional data, limiting individual-level inference.
• File size is 1.3 MB, indicating a relatively small dataset likely containing summary statistics rather than raw case-level data.

Provenance

Source

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates.

Collection Method

Multi-method analysis including Joinpoint regression, ETS/ARIMA forecasting, Random Forest with SHAP, negative binomial regression, and structural equation modeling.

Time Range

1994-2023, with forecasts for 2024-2033.

Freshness

Contains estimates up to 2023 and forecasts to 2033; last updated March 2026.

Geography

East Asia, Tropical Latin America, High-income North America.