GERD and Asthma Co-Burden Analysis Across Three Global Regions

Figshare hosts a research paper analyzing the co-occurrence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and asthma. The study uses Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates from 1994 to 2023, comparing East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America. It quantifies trends, forecasts future burden, and identifies shared metabolic and lifestyle drivers using statistical and machine learning methods.

Use Cases

• Analyze regional trends in GERD and asthma age-standardised prevalence using Joinpoint regression and ETS/ARIMA forecasts.
• Identify shared drivers like diet high in red meat and high fasting plasma glucose for asthma and GERD using Random Forest with SHAP.
• Test geographic heterogeneity in exposure-disease associations, such as the regional effect modification of fasting glucose on asthma, using exposure × region interaction models.
• Explore temporal directionality and pathways between GERD and asthma burden using Granger causality and multigroup structural equation modelling.

Strengths

• Analysis spans 30 years of Global Burden of Disease estimates (1994–2023).
• Compares three distinct global regions: East Asia, Tropical Latin America, and High-income North America.
• Employs a multi-method analytical approach including correlation, regression, forecasting, and machine learning (Random Forest).
• Provides specific prevalence figures, such as 16,591 per 100,000 for GERD in Tropical Latin America in 2023.

Limitations

• The underlying dataset is not directly accessible; analysis is presented in a 2.3 MB PDF report.
• The specific row count, column structure, and sample data for the original GBD estimates used are unknown.
• Geographic coverage is limited to three selected regions, not a global comprehensive analysis.

Provenance

Source

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates.

Collection Method

Secondary analysis of GBD estimates using Spearman correlation, Joinpoint regression, ETS/ARIMA forecasting, Random Forest, negative binomial regression, and structural equation modelling.

Time Range

1994–2023, with forecasts for 2024–2033.

Freshness

Last updated March 2026, using GBD 2023 estimates.

Geography

East Asia, Tropical Latin America, High-income North America.