Simulated US Building Energy Load Profiles 2010-2050

Hourly end-use load profiles for the US residential and commercial building sector, simulated for every other year from 2010 to 2050. Data were produced in 2021 using the ResStock and ComStock building stock energy models, differentiated by county, building type, fuel type, and end use.

Use Cases

• Analyze hourly load shape changes induced by uneven growth across building type and end use categories.
• Model regional power system planning scenarios using county-level and fuel type-specific energy consumption projections.
• Compare simulated base year 2018 building stock data against forward-looking projections derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook growth rates.

Strengths

• Provides hourly temporal resolution for energy load data across a 40-year time range (2010-2050).
• Data is geographically resolved to the county level for the contiguous United States.
• Profiles are differentiated by key analytical dimensions including building type, fuel type, and end use.

Limitations

• Projections are based on a reference scenario that does not reflect large-scale electrification of major building end uses like space heating.
• The dataset excludes on-site electric vehicle charging load, which is a growing component of building energy demand.
• Data is simulated from models (ResStock/ComStock) rather than directly measured, introducing model uncertainty.

Provenance

Source

Department of Energy, produced using NREL's ResStock and ComStock models.

Collection Method

Simulated using building stock energy models (BuildStock tools) with projections derived from EIA's 2021 Annual Energy Outlook Reference Scenario growth rates.

Time Range

Every other year from 2010 to 2050, with a base year of 2018.

Freshness

Dataset was last updated in July 2025, though the underlying simulation reflects 2021 modeling and a 2018 base year.

Geography

Contiguous United States, resolved by county.