Hourly U.S. Electricity Load Profiles for Electrification Scenarios

Featuring hourly load profiles representing projected end-use electricity demand for the United States. The profiles were developed for the Electrification Futures Study using the EnergyPATHWAYS model, covering scenarios of electrification (Reference, Medium, High) and technology advancement (Slow, Moderate, Rapid). Data is aggregated to the state, sector, and select subsector level for a subset of years from 2018 to 2050.

Use Cases

• Compare projected electricity demand across different electrification scenarios (Reference, Medium, High) and technology advancement pathways (Slow, Moderate, Rapid).
• Analyze hourly load profiles aggregated at the state and sector level to model grid impacts of electrification.
• Use the subset of years (2018, 2020, 2024, 2030, 2040, 2050) to study long-term trends in end-use electricity demand.
• Calibrate capacity expansion models like ReEDS using the provided state-level load profiles.

Strengths

• Profiles are derived from the EnergyPATHWAYS model, a detailed energy system model, as described in the cited NREL report.
• Covers multiple future scenarios, including three electrification levels and three technology advancement rates.
• Provides temporal granularity with hourly load data and long-term coverage from 2018 to 2050.
• Includes geographic and sectoral detail with aggregation to the state, sector, and select subsector level.

Limitations

• Load profiles are projections and model outputs, not observed historical measurements.
• Data is provided only for a subset of years (6 years over a 32-year span), not as a continuous time series.
• Numerical values differ from those in the original cited publication due to calibration for another model, which may complicate direct comparison.

Provenance

Source

National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Department of Energy.

Collection Method

Developed using the EnergyPATHWAYS (EP) model for the Electrification Futures Study, with further calibration for the ReEDS capacity expansion model.

Time Range

Projections for years 2018, 2020, 2024, 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Freshness

Last updated in March 2026, though the underlying study and model are from 2018.

Geography

United States, aggregated to the state level.