Southern California maps assess debris-flow probability and peak discharge for basins burned by the 2003 Cedar and Paradise Fires. The USGS summary indicates the data is derived from logistic and multiple regression models using factors like burn extent, soil properties, and storm rainfall. These maps were created to support preliminary mitigation design and evacuation planning following the 2003 fires.
Use Cases
- Model debris-flow probability for individual basins using logistic regression outputs based on burned extent and soil properties.
- Estimate peak discharge at basin outlets via regression models incorporating basin gradient and storm rainfall data.
- Identify basins most prone to large debris-flow events by comparing probability percentages and discharge estimates across the study area.
- Support preliminary design of mitigation measures by analyzing spatial patterns of high-probability and high-discharge basins.
- Plan evacuation timing and routes by mapping basins with estimated peak discharges exceeding specific thresholds.
Strengths
- Provides probability estimates ranging from 0% to 98% and peak discharge estimates from 893 to 5,987 ft³/s for the Cedar Fire.
- Covers two major fire events (Cedar and Paradise Fires) with consistent modeling for 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year storm recurrence intervals.
Limitations
- Data is temporally stale, focused solely on the immediate post-fire period of 2003.
- Geographic scope is limited to specific basins burned by two fires in Southern California.
- Model outputs are preliminary assessments, not ground-truthed measurements of actual events.
Provenance
- Source
- CEOS_EXTRA via NASA EarthData, with summary provided by the USGS.
- Collection Method
- Derived from logistic and multiple regression models applied to geospatial and environmental factors.
- Time Range
- Post-2003 wildfire period.
- Freshness
- null
- Geography
- Basins burned by the Cedar and Paradise Fires in Southern California.