Ethiopia Somali Region Displacement Forecasts for Three Months

Ethiopia's Somali region receives subnational displacement forecasts at the admin 2 level for a three-month period. The dataset, created by the Danish Refugee Council using the AHEAD model, contains observed, estimated, and forecasted values for internally displaced persons. It was last updated on March 16, 2026.

Use Cases

• Forecasting future displacement trends based on model estimates for the next three months.
• Analyzing the relationship between conflict events and displacement based on model inputs.
• Assessing the impact of food security conditions on displacement patterns.
• Comparing observed displacement figures from official sources with model estimates.

Strengths

• Provides three distinct data types: observed, estimated, and forecasted values.
• Focuses on a specific three-month forecast horizon for operational planning.
• Model incorporates multiple drivers like conflict and food security.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data may reflect geographic bias inherent to the specific region and sources.

Provenance

Source

Danish Refugee Council

Collection Method

Generated by the AHEAD model using official sources and estimates based on conflict, food security, etc.

Time Range

Forecasts for a three-month period from the point of creation.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-16 09:10:27.180750; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Ethiopia, specifically the Somali region at admin 2 level.