Forecasted Basin-Average Precipitation from GEPS Ensemble

GEPS ensemble precipitation forecasts aggregated over watershed sub-basins for hydrological planning. The data is produced by Environment and Climate Change Canada's ensemble system, which runs approximately 20 members globally to quantify forecast uncertainty out to about 16 days. It was last updated by the Government of Manitoba on March 18, 2026.

Use Cases

• Probabilistic flood risk assessment based on ensemble precipitation forecasts.
• Drought scenario planning using sub-basin-averaged rainfall/snowfall expectations.
• Gauging forecast confidence for watershed management based on multiple ensemble member metrics.

Strengths

• Forecasts extend to approximately 384 hours (16 days), providing a medium-range outlook.
• Data is aggregated over sub-basin polygons, which is directly relevant for watershed-scale analysis.
• Available in multiple geospatial formats including KML, SHP, and GeoJSON.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count and dataset size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Data may reflect geographic bias inherent to the source region of Manitoba, Canada.

Provenance

Source

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) / Government of Manitoba

Collection Method

Aggregation of ensemble precipitation forecasts from the GEPS system over sub-basin polygons.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-18 11:31:30.941654; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Likely covers watersheds within or relevant to Manitoba, Canada.