Projected Thermal Habitat Suitability for Cod Species in Northwest Atlantic and Arctic

Forecasted thermal habitat suitability for Polar cod, Atlantic cod, and Greenland cod across four climatology periods from 1981-2005 to 2076-2100. The dataset includes modelled raster layers for egg survival, juvenile growth potential, and an integrated habitat suitability index, focusing on ocean shelf areas ≤400 meters deep. Predictions are based on CMIP5 ocean temperature projections applied to physiologically based species distribution models.

Use Cases

• Analyze projected poleward shifts in suitable thermal habitat for juvenile life stages of Polar cod, Atlantic cod, and Greenland cod across the 2076-2100 period.
• Compare changes in the overall area of thermally suitable habitat between the egg survival and growth potential metrics for each species from 1981-2005 to 2076-2100.
• Model integrated habitat suitability index surfaces to identify areas and periods where thermal conditions are suitable for both egg survival and juvenile growth.
• Assess species-specific differences in the magnitude of habitat shift using the forecasted suitability raster layers for the 2026-2050 and 2051-2075 climatology periods.

Strengths

• Includes projections for three ecologically and socio-economically important gadid species: Polar cod, Atlantic cod, and Greenland cod.
• Provides modelled data across four distinct climatology periods spanning from 1981-2005 to 2076-2100.
• Focuses analysis on ocean shelf areas where depth is ≤400 meters, a key ecological zone for the species.
• Integrates multiple suitability metrics into a combined habitat suitability index for both early life stages.

Limitations

• Projections are based on CMIP5 climate models and specific physiological assumptions, introducing inherent model uncertainty.
• The analysis is limited to thermal habitat suitability and does not incorporate other critical factors like prey availability or ocean acidification.
• Spatial coverage is restricted to the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic shelf regions.

Provenance

Source

Fisheries and Oceans Canada.

Collection Method

Physiologically based species distribution models applied to CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to create predicted suitability raster surfaces.

Time Range

1981-2005, 2026-2050, 2051-2075, 2076-2100.

Freshness

Last updated March 24, 2026.

Geography

Northwest Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Canadian Arctic, specifically ocean shelf areas ≤400 meters deep.