Global 1-km Urban Land Extent Projections for SSP Scenarios, 2000-2100

Global 1-km resolution urban land fraction projections spanning 2000 to 2100 at decadal intervals across five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Produced by J. Gao and M. Pesaresi for the Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), the data uses an iterative downscaling algorithm to refine 1/8-degree resolution inputs into 30 arc-second grids.

Use Cases

• Analyzing 'urban land fraction' grid cells to model future urban heat island intensity under varying SSP scenarios
• Overlaying decadal 'urban land expansion' projections with conservation maps to identify future habitat fragmentation risks
• Comparing 'urban land extent' across SSP1 through SSP5 to evaluate the land-use implications of different global development paths

Strengths

• 1-km (30 arc-second) high-resolution global spatial coverage
• Includes five distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios for comparative analysis
• Uses an iterative allocation algorithm to prevent urban land overflow in highly developed cells

Limitations

• Projections are downscaled from 1/8-degree data, potentially inheriting errors from the coarser source
• The allocation algorithm prioritizes expansion near existing urban centers, which may miss emerging isolated developments

Provenance

Source

Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC)

Collection Method

Algorithmic downscaling of 1/8-degree resolution urban land data using iterative allocation

Time Range

2000-2100

Freshness

Projections extend to 2100; metadata indicates a last update in March 2026.

Geography

Global