Global Transportation Demand Projections Using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

Historical passenger and freight transport data for 38 and 43 countries respectively, from 1990 to 2018, sourced from the International Transport Forum. The dataset integrates World Bank socioeconomic indicators and projects future demand using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenario framework. It was compiled by a researcher from Carnegie Mellon University for scenario analysis.

Use Cases

• Forecasting future transport energy demand based on integrated socioeconomic and historical transport trends.
• Analyzing the relationship between socioeconomic development and passenger-kilometer demand across different countries.
• Modeling scenario-based outcomes for freight transport in tonne-kilometers under different global development pathways.
• Benchmarking national transport demand trends against a global average per capita model.

Strengths

• Integrates data from authoritative sources including the International Transport Forum and World Bank.
• Covers a historical time series from 1990 to 2018 for passenger transport across 38 countries.
• Applies a recognized scenario framework (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) for future projections.
• Includes freight transport data for 43 countries, providing a multi-modal perspective.

Limitations

• The description notes a significant drawback of lacking country- and sector-disaggregated data for some countries of interest.
• Future estimates rely on a crucial assumption that developing countries track global average per capita trends, introducing uncertainty.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.

Provenance

Source

International Transport Forum (ITF) Transport Outlook, World Bank Development Indicators, IIASA SSP Database.

Collection Method

Historical data collection from published databases integrated with scenario modeling using the SSP framework.

Time Range

Historical data from 1990 to 2018; future projections based on SSP scenarios.

Geography

Global, with specific coverage for 38 countries (passenger) and 43 countries (freight).