Interim 2015-based Population Projections for London Local Authorities

Four variants of local authority-level population projections for London, including trend-based and housing-linked models. The Greater London Authority produced these interim projections, which were superseded by newer trend projections in 2016. These projections make no attempt to account for the UK's exit from the European Union.

Use Cases

• Forecast borough-level population changes based on the central trend-based projection using a 10-year migration scenario.
• Model short-term population growth for planning based on the trend-based projection using a 5-year migration scenario.
• Analyze long-term demographic trends based on the trend-based projection using a 14-year migration scenario.
• Plan for housing development needs using the housing-linked projection incorporating data from the 2013 SHLAA.
• Conduct small-area analysis using ward-level or MSOA-level projections consistent with the borough housing-led model.

Strengths

• Includes four distinct projection variants at the local authority level, allowing for scenario comparison.
• Provides small-area projections at both ward and MSOA levels for granular analysis.
• Methodology papers are available for all projections, as noted in the description.

Limitations

• Description metadata is limited; actual data quality requires manual inspection after download.
• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• The data was last updated on 2026-07-08 13:33:27.921521; freshness should be verified as the description notes these are interim and superseded projections.

Provenance

Source

Greater London Authority

Collection Method

Projections based on mid-year estimate data and housing data from the 2013 SHLAA.

Time Range

Based on 2015 data.

Freshness

The description indicates these are interim 2015-based projections that were superseded by 2016-based trend projections.

Geography

London local authorities, wards, and MSOAs.