Arctic Boreal Land Cover Projections Under Climate Scenarios

Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain projections of land use and land cover change from 2015 to 2100. The dataset models annual change under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) at 0.25-degree resolution, integrating Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) projections with MODIS data and downscaled via FLUS and Demeter models. Data originates from ORNL_CLOUD and is provided in NetCDF format.

Use Cases

• Modeling boreal forest transitions between needleleaf and broadleaf tree types under climate scenarios.
• Projecting future extent of C3 unmanaged rainfed crop and grassland (C3/C4) areas for agricultural impact studies.
• Analyzing spatial patterns of shrub expansion (broadleaf evergreen/deciduous shrub-temperate/boreal) in tundra ecosystems.
• Comparing land cover outcomes from two downscaling methodologies (FLUS and Demeter) for uncertainty assessment.
• Studying long-term trends in specific land classes like broadleaf deciduous tree-boreal or C3 arctic grass.

Strengths

• Provides an 85-year time series (2015-2100) of annual projections for long-term trend analysis.
• Includes 15 specific land type classes, enabling detailed ecological and agricultural studies.
• Integrates high-resolution MODIS land cover data with GCAM model projections for improved spatial accuracy.
• Offers projections under two distinct climate pathways (SSP126 and SSP585) for comparative scenario analysis.

Limitations

• Conflicting last updated dates: nasa_earthdata shows 2100-12-31 (implied future/projection date), while datagov shows 2026-03 13.
• Row count, column names, and dataset size are unspecified across all sources.
• License is noted as 'other-license-specified', requiring users to seek out specific terms.

Provenance

Source

ORNL_CLOUD

Collection Method

Generated by integrating regional LULC projections from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with MODIS land cover data and applying FLUS and Demeter spatial downscaling models.

Time Range

2015 to 2100

Freshness

2026-03-13 01:06:51.352609

Geography

Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) domain