Historic GDP and Population Estimates with Uncertainty, 1500-2018

1500 A.D. to 2018 A.D. of country-year estimates for Gross Domestic Product, GDP per capita, Surplus Domestic Product, and population, developed by Christopher J. Fariss at the University of Michigan. The data is generated using a latent variable modeling framework that incorporates multiple indicators to provide principled uncertainty estimates for each variable. This expanded temporal coverage is intended to offer new insights into relationships between development and democracy, conflict, repression, and health.

Use Cases

• Modeling the relationship between economic development and democracy based on extended historical GDP and population coverage.
• Analyzing the link between conflict processes and economic indicators like GDP per capita over centuries.
• Incorporating measurement uncertainty in regression models studying repression or health outcomes.
• Examining long-term trends in Surplus Domestic Product relative to population growth.

Strengths

• Covers a long time range from 1500 A.D. to 2018 A.D.
• Provides principled uncertainty estimates for all country-year variables using a latent variable framework.
• Uses multiple indicators for each core variable to improve measurement.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count is unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.
• Last update date is unknown; freshness unverified.

Provenance

Source

Christopher J. Fariss, University of Michigan

Collection Method

Developed via a latent variable modeling framework using multiple indicators for each variable.

Time Range

1500 A.D. to 2018 A.D.

Geography

Country-level (implied from description)