LBA-ECO Modeled Amazon Deforestation Scenarios 2002-2050

NASA's LBA-ECO LC-14 dataset provides modeled future deforestation patterns for the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. It contains results from two scenarios, Business-as-Usual and Governance, generated using the SimAmazonia model. The dataset includes 98 annual GeoTiff raster files and a comma-delimited file of model input data derived from satellite maps.

Use Cases

• Comparing projected deforestation rates under Business-as-Usual versus Governance scenarios using annual raster layers.
• Analyzing the spatial impact of major road paving on forest loss across the PanAmazon region.
• Evaluating the modeled effectiveness of Protected Areas in limiting deforestation within subregions.
• Using the comma-delimited model input file to calibrate or validate other deforestation models.
• Assessing long-term habitat fragmentation trends across the Amazon River watershed, Legal Amazon, and Guiana region.

Strengths

• Dataset provides a long-term projection covering 49 years from 2002 to 2050.
• Includes two distinct modeled scenarios based on historical trends from 1997-2002 and specific policy assumptions.
• Model incorporates concrete factors like road paving and a 50% deforestation limit per subregion.
• Data products are structured with one GeoTiff per year per scenario, totaling 98 files for consistent temporal analysis.

Limitations

• Conflicting last updated dates: one source lists 2050-12-31 (a future date), another lists 2026-03-13.
• Precise row counts, file sizes, and detailed column names for the tabular input data are not provided.
• The model is a simulation based on historical trends and assumptions, not direct observation.

Provenance

Source

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), LBA-ECO project.

Collection Method

Modeled using the SimAmazonia simulation, with input data derived from satellite deforestation maps.

Time Range

2002-2050

Freshness

2026-03-13

Geography

Amazon Basin (PanAmazon area), including the Amazon River watershed, the Legal Amazon in Brazil, and the Guiana region.