Business Tariff Cost Pass-Through Forecast For Q1 2026

First quarter of 2026 survey data from Statistics Canada measures the likelihood of businesses passing tariff-related cost increases to customers. It is segmented by NAICS industry code, business size, type, activity, and ownership structure. The data was published on March 4, 2026.

Use Cases

• Forecast industry-level inflation pressure by analyzing likelihood trends across NAICS codes.
• Model pricing behavior differences by correlating pass-through likelihood with business employment size.
• Assess the influence of majority ownership structure on cost absorption strategies.
• Compare tariff impact sensitivity between different types of business activities.

Strengths

• Granular segmentation by five dimensions including NAICS and business size.
• Official data from a national statistical agency (Statistics Canada).

Limitations

• Single time point (Q1 2026) limits longitudinal analysis.
• Survey-based data may reflect stated intentions rather than actual future behavior.

Provenance

Source

Statistics Canada.

Collection Method

Business survey.

Time Range

First quarter of 2026 (forecast period).

Freshness

Data reflects forecasts for the 12 months following Q1 2026.

Geography

Canada.