Malawi Conflict Forecasts: 36-Month Monthly Predictions of Fatalities

The Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) provides monthly conflict forecasts for Malawi, projecting potential violence up to 36 months into the future. Developed by the VIEWS consortium, this dataset utilizes iterative research models to predict fatalities and conflict events. The data is provided in CSV format and includes HXL tags for humanitarian interoperability.

Use Cases

• Analyzing predicted 'fatalities' trends to prioritize humanitarian aid locations in Malawi
• Integrating 'forecast' probabilities into early-warning systems for regional security monitoring
• Validating conflict prediction models by comparing 'forecast' values against future ground-truth observations

Strengths

• Provides a 36-month forward-looking forecast horizon
• Includes HXL tags for standardized humanitarian data exchange
• Produced by a specialized research consortium using iterative modeling techniques

Limitations

• Geographic scope is restricted to Malawi
• Forecasts are probabilistic and subject to the inherent uncertainty of conflict modeling
• Metadata lacks specific column definitions and record counts

Provenance

Source

Violence & Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS) Consortium

Collection Method

Model-generated

Time Range

Up to 3 years in advance from the generation date

Freshness

Updated monthly according to the VIEWS system description.

Geography

Malawi