Mali Subnational Displacement Forecasts for the Next Three Months

Three-month forecasts of internal displacement in Mali at the admin 1 level, generated by the AHEAD model. The data includes observed figures from official sources, model estimates of past displacement based on conflict and food security, and forecasted values for the future. It was last updated on 2026-03 16 and is provided by the Danish Refugee Council under a CC-BY-4.0 license.

Use Cases

• Forecast displacement trends for the next quarter based on the AHEAD model's three-month projections.
• Analyze the relationship between conflict events and displacement based on the model's estimated values.
• Compare official displacement statistics with model estimates to assess data gaps.
• Plan resource allocation for IDP assistance based on subnational forecasted values.

Strengths

• Provides three distinct data types: observed, estimated, and forecasted values for analysis.
• Focuses on a specific three-month forecast horizon for near-term planning.
• Data is provided at the subnational (admin 1) level for geographic specificity.

Limitations

• Column-level documentation is absent; field semantics must be inferred after download.
• Row count and dataset size are unknown, which may limit suitability assessment.

Provenance

Source

Danish Refugee Council

Collection Method

Generated by the AHEAD model using official displacement data, conflict, and food security indicators.

Time Range

Covers historical estimates and a three-month forecast period from the point of creation.

Freshness

Last updated 2026-03-16 08:55:49.131504; freshness should be verified.

Geography

Mali, at the admin 1 (region) level.